Every weather app shows you a forecast. Almost none of them tell you, afterwards, whether it was right. After The Forecast does the checking. Each edition takes what the major forecast models predicted, compare it hour by hour against independent observations, and publish the result for one country at a time.
The scoring runs continuously and covers the world. The reports pick one country a month and look at it properly: which model read the measured temperature and wind best, how fast each one loses its grip as you look further ahead, and exactly how much evidence supports the result. A metric is held back when its observation source is not independent.
Every edition
One country a month, scored against independent observations. Every edition keeps its own permanent address and is never rewritten in place, so a link to it stays a link to what it said.
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No. 6
September 2026 The United Kingdom, 8 to 29 September 2026 Rain at Lakenheath scored on every day of the period at every notice from one to seven days ahead: 20.6 millimetres in 22 days, with the wettest day of the wet week of 8 to 14 September drawn hour by hour. Read it -
No. 5
September 2026 The Netherlands, 8 to 29 September 2026 De Bilt's rain gauge against every model at every notice from one to seven days ahead: 48 millimetres in 22 days, with the wettest day of the wet week of 8 to 14 September drawn hour by hour. Read it -
No. 4
August 2026 The United Kingdom, 14 to 23 August 2026 The wet spell of 17 to 23 August at Lakenheath, with each model tested on both the total and whether it put the rain in the right hours. Read it -
No. 3
Jul to Aug 2026 The Netherlands, 26 July to 24 August 2026 The wet week of 17 to 23 August, read against De Bilt's own rain gauge: 30 millimetres, hour by hour, traced back to the notice at which each model still had it. Read it -
No. 2
Jul to Aug 2026 The United Kingdom, 1 July to 12 August 2026 Heathrow reached 36 degrees today. ICON and ECMWF AIFS held that heat from six days ahead; the analysis remains provisional until the day closes. Read it -
No. 1
Jul to Aug 2026 The Netherlands, 1 July to 12 August 2026 Seven models on 960 common hours each, including Apple Weather and Foreca, with 13 August traced back to the notice at which nobody saw it coming. Read it
How this is measured
We store what each model predicted for a given hour, at distances from one to seven days ahead, and keep it until that hour arrives. Then we compare the prediction against the observation. The first edition uses complete temperature and wind records from Dutch weather stations, then intersects the sample so every model faces the exact same hours. Rain is ranked where a station's own rain gauge covers the whole period, hour by hour.
Every edition states its own limits, in the report, next to the numbers. The methodology explains the scoring in full, and corrections lists anything we have had to fix after publishing.
Which countries
The scoring itself is worldwide, but a report needs enough independent observation hours to say something supportable. The roster grows with instrument coverage rather than ambition. Countries are added when a common sample passes the same bar, and the methodology states what that bar is.
The live version of this report is an app
After The Forecast comes out on a schedule. VeriSky runs the same scoring every hour, for wherever you actually are, and tells you which forecast has been getting it right lately. The standings are free.
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